Odds on a No-Deal Brexit Shorten

21.03.2019, 12:46

Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, informed that the postponement of Brexit deadline is allowable for a short time, but only if the British Parliament endorses the agreement between Brussels and London.

The head of the European Council, Donald Tusk, has already called on EU leaders to be ready for Brexit. The exit of Britain can be postponed for a year. Brexit is officially on March 29th.

After Tusk’s claim, bookmaking giant’s Paddy Power odds on a no-deal Brexit shortened from 5/1 to 4/1 (probability is 20%)

Tusk informed that the members of Parliament should pass May’s deal for that to happen. Unfortunately for May, a letter with requesting prolongation arrived late for the EU Parliament to make a decision at the on Thursday. May asked the EU for a short, three-month deferment of Brexit.

Tusk claimed that if the EU country leaders would endorse his statement and there would not be a positive vote in the House of Commons, it will be possible to finalize the prolongation.

Another vote on May’s deal will be possible. However, Paddy Power reported that predictions are not confident – getting 5/6 on the vote to pass.

Earlier, the House of Commons Speaker J. Bercow, having suspended the debate in parliament, officially declared that, according to the tradition, it is impossible to re-submit an already rejected bill during one session of parliament.

Betting Odds on Brexit

Many MPs have a choice between a no-deal Brexit and passing the PM’s reconsidered deal. In addition, many of them suppose that May’s deal is better than anything presented so far.

The odds on Britain having the deal on time without the prolongation is 20/1 on Bet365, while the odds on having a delay are shortened. Some bookmakers provide 1/7 odds on the EU to endorse the prolongation.

To endorse a request for the prolongation, it’s necessary to rely on the other 27 EU countries. However, it is quite possible that Belgium, France and Spain might be ready to bow to a no-deal Brexit.

It’s better for the EU to solve the matter before the European Parliament elections on May 23, but the probability of a long process of solving a problem is very high.

Having reviewed all aspects, Bet365 and other betting sites cannot accurately state the predictions of Brexit passing this year or the next one.

Bet365 offers 11/10 on Brexit taking place between April and December of 2019, but the UK leaving in 2020 or later, are 5/4.

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