Political Betting in UK after Boris Johnson Becomes PM

1.08.2019, 16:23

After Teresa May’s decision to quit, Boris Johnson is the new UK Prime Minister. Johnson ascended to the top position after a majority of the 160,000 members of the Conservative Party voted for him as their new leader. The decision was expected, as the odds on the next UK Prime Minister favored the new PM.

Johnson is a controversial and divisive leader, and his time in office promises to be an interesting one. He has promised several changes under his leadership, including reducing taxes on high earners and employing more police officers.

However, his litmus test will be the hugely controversial issue of Brexit. Johnson has insisted that the United Kingdom will exit the European Union before the October 31 deadline, whether or not a new deal is agreed by then.

Naturally, the bookmakers are setting the odds on Brexit outcomes, as they did before. There are several issues that the UK bookmakers have opened books on since Johnson became the new PM:

When will the UK leave the European Union

This is a hot market in the betting arena, with no one really sure what will happen. The new Prime Minister has vowed to negotiate a new exit agreement with the EU, despite the European body saying that they will not change the terms they agreed with former PM, Theresa May. Despite these contradicting stances on either side, Bet365 have the UK at 11/8 not to be a European Union member by December, this year.

No Deal Brexit

Johnson has convinced the staunch Brexit proponents in his party that he will not blink against the EU, if he cannot reach a deal with them. However, many observers see a No Deal Brexit as the most damaging option for the UK, while Brexiteers are still angry that the March deadline was not achieved. The No-Deal Brexit odds currently stand at 2/1, from 3/1 in May.

When will the General Election be held

Theresa May could not get the needed numbers in parliament to support her Brexit withdrawal proposal. If Johnson comes across the same problem, he may be forced to call a General Election. While this may seem as unlikely to happen, LadBrokes has opened betting on a 2019 general elections, at 11/10.

Second Brexit Referendum

A second Brexit poll may seem impossible, now that a proponent of leaving the EU is the Prime Minister. However, Labor is pressing for a second referendum, and if it emerge triumphant in a general election before Brexit takes place, a second referendum may happen. RedZone has a market on a no second Brexit referendum, at 1/16.

London Mayoral Elections

The London Mayoral elections will be held in 2020. Current Mayor Sadiq Khan is at the moment 1/3 with Coral to retain his seat. However, Boris Johnson’s influence could help Tory contender Shaun Bailey become the new mayor. Bailey is currently at 5/1 to be elected.